Exogenous shocks and identity threats: Explaining the unlikely results of the 2025 Canadian federal election

The 2025 Canadian federal election marked a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the Liberal Party. While the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) strengthened its electoral position, the Liberal Party, under new leader Mark Carney, secured a minority government after months in which the CPC had appeared unbeatable. Drawing on data from the 2025 Canadian Election Study (CES) and comparisons with previous CES waves, we argue that the 2025 election is best understood as a case of shifting issue salience that activated perceptions of threat and identity, thereby disrupting “normal” patterns of vote choice among third-party supporters. In particular, attitudes toward the United States assumed unprecedented importance during the campaign. In the context of newly imposed American tariffs and former President Donald Trump’s renewed rhetoric about annexing Canada as a “51st state,” many Canadians expressed a desire for greater distance from the United States. These sentiments disproportionately benefited the Liberal Party. The Liberals under Carney benefited from strong Canadian identifiers, as well as from modest aggregate increases in national identity, and were widely perceived as the party best able to manage the relationship with the United States. More importantly, U.S. threats to Canadian identity led to unprecedented strategic behaviour among third-party identifiers, who rallied to the Liberal brand. Taken together, these findings highlight how evolving issue agendas and identity-based considerations reshaped electoral competition and voter behaviour in the 2025 Canadian federal election.