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Do Politicians Outside the United States Also Think Voters Are More Conservative than They Really Are?
By Jean-Benoit Pilet in collaboration with Lior Sheffer, Luzia Helfer, Frédéric Varone, Rens Vliegenthart and Stefaan Walgrave
Abstract
In an influential recent study, Broockman and Skovron (2018) found that American politicians consistently overestimate the conservativeness of their constituents on a host of issues. Whether this conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion is a uniquely American phenomenon is an open question with broad implications for the quality and nature of democratic representation. We investigate it in four democracies: Belgium, Canada, Germany, and Switzerland. Despite these countries having political systems that differ greatly, we document a strong and persistent conservative bias held by a majority of the 866 representatives interviewed. Our findings highlight the conservative bias in elites’ perception of public opinion as a widespread regularity and point toward a pressing need for further research on its sources and impacts.