Pre-electoral opposition cooperation under democratic erosion: Evidence from Turkey and Hungary

Séminaire/webinaire de l'axe Partis, Élections et Représentation with Edgar Şar, Co-founder and the current Co-Director of Istanbul Political Research Institute (IstanPol).

Abstract
 

This paper investigates the dynamics of pre-electoral opposition cooperation under conditions of democratic erosion, focusing on Turkey and Hungary as key cases. While existing literature largely attributes opposition coordination in electoral autocracies to regime vulnerability, this study argues that such explanations fall short in contexts where autocratization unfolds gradually under elected incumbents. Using a longitudinal comparative analysis of eight elections in Turkey and five in Hungary from the early 2010s to the mid-2020s, the study develops an alternative framework highlighting three key drivers of pre-electoral opposition cooperation: electoral rule incentives, the reorientation of political cleavages, and feedback from recent electoral experiences. Findings show that while electoral rules are necessary to trigger cooperation, durable alliances require the emergence of an anti-incumbent cleavage that overshadows intra-opposition divides, reinforced by affirming electoral feedback. The study underscores that pre-electoral cooperation in these contexts is an adaptive and fragile process, shaped by strategic learning amid political uncertainty, and offers broader insights into opposition strategies in autocratizing regimes.

Short biography

Edgar Şar is a Co-founder and the current Co-Director of Istanbul Political Research Institute (IstanPol). He received his PhD degree in political science from Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, with this dissertation “Contesting Electoral Authoritarianism: Electoral Strategies of the Political Opposition in Turkey and Hungary” in January 2024. His research interests include (de-)democratization, opposition strategies in authoritarian regimes, secularism and state-society-religion relations, and constitutional law. Dr Şar was previously a CATS Fellow at SWP Berlin, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, and is currently a Research Affiliate at CEU Democracy Institute in Budapest. Having engaged in a wide array of academic and policy-relevant research, projects, and initiatives, Dr Şar regularly appears as political commentator in Turkish media and writes columns on Turkish and international affairs.